The National Basketball Player Most Valuable Player is a prestigious award. To determine who gets the award, a select panel of media ranks their top 5 candidates in order and submits the ballots for counting. Only regular season performance is counted in the ballots, as the ballots are submitted before playoffs. After the playoffs are over, the trophy is presented to the winner at the NBA Awards.
After Giannis Antetokounmpo won his first MVP last year, it looked like he had a great shot to repeat. Then a wild summer free agency reshuffled lots of the top talent to different teams. Russell Westbrook joined James Harden in Houston to form what looked like the most boom or bust team in the league. LeBron James had some help this year from a new and improved team that included Anthony Davis. Kawhi and Paul George teamed up in LA to directly rival LeBron and AD. Toronto, having just lost Kawhi, wouldn't give up their status as champs without a fight. Kristaps Porzingis was coming back from an injury to join Rookie of the Year (and future MVP) Luka Doncic in Dallas. The Celtics boasted a young core led by Jayson Tatum and was ready to prove that they could make do without Kyrie. New Orleans drafted generational prospect Zion Williamson. Utah added Mike Conley, a valuable second scoring option to ease the load from Donovan Mitchell. By the all-star break, it looked like Giannis was about to win back-to-back MVP's, putting him in a category with Steph Curry, Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Magic Johnson. But the LeBron had finally found his groove with the new Lakers core and was ready to make a late push for the trophy.
Since the season is suspended (and the regular season may be over) who gets the MVP? Is it LeBron or Giannis? To answer this, I'll turn to the data.
It's important to note that there is a good sample size of games and shots for both Giannis and LeBron, so both players per-game statistics can be compared.
Offense
Points per game
| Player | Points per game | Games Played |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 29.6 | 57 |
| LeBron | 25.7 | 60 |
It looks like Giannis has the edge so far as he averaged more points over fewer games. But how consistent was each players scoring throughput the season? How significant was LeBron's scoring surge at the end of the season and how does that compare to Giannis's production?
Looks like LeBron's late scoring push wasn't actually as impressive because Giannis had already been scoring at a high velocity all season. Points per minute will show the scoring effort while taking the amount of time played in to account.
These charts are very similar because both players were very consistent in the points they scored and how many minutes they played each night. Almost all season Giannis was able to put out a higher scoring effort in the minutes that he played compared to LeBron.
3's
| Player | 3's attempted | 3-point% |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 271 | 30.6% |
| LeBron | 381 | 34.9% |
LeBron has both the edge here in terms of volume of threes taken and percentage. But how does this compare to their teammates? LeBron was first on his team this season in both threes made and attempted and Giannis was 4th in threes made and 5th in threes attempted on his team this season. What can be made of this? Well first off, the Lakers didn't have a lot of solid shooting presence this year. This makes LeBron's shooting numbers more impressive than Giannis did this year. 19.21% of Lebron's shots from the field came from 3 compared to just 10.16% for Giannis. LeBron relied on it more and was able to deliver more.
2's
| Player | Field goals attempted | FG% |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 1139 | 54.7% |
| LeBron | 1176 | 49.8% |
Giannis and LeBron took a similar number of field goals, but Giannis made them at a higher percentage. Both players are monsters in the paint in their own regard, but Giannis gets the slight edge here in the stats.
Free Throws
| Player | Free throws attempted | FT% |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 570 | 63.3% |
| LeBron | 343 | 69.7% |
LeBron has the slight edge as far as free throw percentage goes, but Giannis has taken almost twice as many. This gives Giannis more of an edge here, as he was fouled a lot more driving to the basket and still had a better field goal percentage.
True Shooting
A player's true shooting percentage takes 3-pointers, 2-pointers and free throws in to account.
| Player | Shots attempted | TS% |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 1980 | 60.8% |
| LeBron | 1900 | 58.2% |
As the link above points out, this statistic can have a potential weakness in this case because most of the fouls that LeBron and Giannis had this season were from 2-point shooting foul possessions. Since the measures are so close, it can be said that both players shot the ball very well this season in regards to TS%.
Shot charts
Now that I've presented a good idea of how each player shot from each distance, let's look at their shot charts. The size of the hexagons represent how many shots were taken in each area and the color is the efficiency, or the points per shot.
Right away, I see that Lebron took more 3's and shot them better than Giannis. LeBron's three point zones are all pretty efficient and Giannis is only efficient in one corner and at the top of the key.
The next thing that stands out to me is that LeBron took more midrange shots and his 2-pointers are more spread out than Giannis. Neither was very efficient from mid-range, but LeBron was taking more shots in that area than Giannis. I wonder if LeBron shot these to bring the defense out of the paint so he can assist his teammates (like AD, who isn't an MVP candidate but was an All-Star) in the paint easier. Either way, it's crazy to see how large the area is of dense shots for both. Both MVP candidates are monsters in the paint.
Assists
| Player | Assists | Assists per game | AST% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 329 | 5.7 | 33.9% |
| LeBron | 636 | 10.6 | 49.7% |
LeBron was leading the league in assists when the season was suspended, so it's no surprise that LeBron is the clear winner here. This is also impressive considering that the Lakers don't have as much depth as the Bucks, but I'll look that later. AST% is the percentage of teammate shots that a player assisted while he was on the floor. LeBron assisted almost half of all shots while he was on the floor compared to about a third for Giannis. There's no argument to be made for Giannis here, LeBron's assist stats are more impressive.
Offensive Rebounds
| Player | Offensive rebounds | ORB% |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 130 | 7.8% |
| LeBron | 59 | 3.1% |
Giannis has the slight edge in terms of total offensive rebounds, but the advanced player stats on Basketball-Reference.com help provide a clearer picture. Giannis grabbed an estimated 7.8% of available offensive rebounds compared to LeBron's 3.1%. Giannis was grabbing a higher percentage of available offensive rebounds, giving him the edge here in both respects.
Defense
Defensive Rebounds
Defensive rebounds need to be taken in to account before deciding who's rebounding stats were more impressive.
| Player | Defensive rebounds | DRB% |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 653 | 34.5% |
| LeBron | 414 | 21% |
Giannis seems to have the edge in defensive rebounds as well. According to the advanced rebound statistics I referenced above, Giannis grabbed an estimated 34.5% of available defensive rebounds compared to LeBron's 21%. Giannis has the clear advantage here. When Giannis was on the floor, he was responsible for over a third of the defensive rebounds.
| Player | Total rebounds | TRB% |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 783 | 22% |
| LeBron | 473 | 12.3% |
It's no surprise that Giannis had more total rebounds this season. It's worth mentioning that LeBron played mostly PG and SG this season while Giannis was playing PF and C. Point guards aren't expected to grab as many rebounds, as typically that's the job of the PF or C. This explains why Giannis dominated the rebound statistics.
Blocks
| Player | Blocks | BLK% |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 58 | 2.9% |
| LeBron | 30 | 1.3% |
As I mentioned before, it's the job of the PF and C to grab rebounds and block shots. It's uncommon to see a PG with a lot of blocks. BLK% is the percentage of shots blocked by a player while he was on the floor. Giannis is more impressive here as expected because he is a PF/C.
Advanced Stats
Offensive Four Factors
Basketball is a team sport, and it wouldn't show a complete picture for either MVP candidate without looking at the offensive and defensive four factors for each team. It's no secret that Giannis and LeBron were the focal point of their teams this season, but it's important to see if they actually made their team better on offense and defense.
- Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
- How well the team shot the ball, adjusts for 2 and 3-pointers
- A higher eFG% is better
- Turnover Percentage (TOV%)
- Estimate of turnovers per 100 plays
- A lower TOV% is better
- Offensive Rebound Percentage (ORB%)
- Percentage of available rebounds that were rebounded by the team
- A higher ORB% is better
- Free Throws per Field Goal Attempt (FT/FGA)
- Measures how well the team attacked the basket and drew fouls
- A higher FT/FGA is better
| Team | eFG% | eFG% League Rank | TOV% | TOV% League Rank | ORB% | ORB% League Rank | FT/FGA | FT/FGA League Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 Milwaukee Bucks | 55.3% | 1 | 12.8 | 14 | 20.7% | 26 | .196 | 17 |
| 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers | 54.8% | 4 | 13.2 | 20 | 24.6% | 4 | .196 | 16 |
Both the Lakers and Bucks shot the ball very well, but the advantage in eFG% goes to the Bucks as they were first in the league. The Lakers were better at avoiding turnovers than the Bucks, probably because they had the ultimate veteran presence in LeBron assisting other players on the team. The Lakers were also better at grabbing offensive rebounds than the Bucks. The Lakers and Bucks had the same FT/FGA, which means that they were attacking the rim and drawing fouls at the same rate.
Defensive Four Factors
The defensive four factors are the same as the offensive four factors, but it's a measurement of what they allowed. A higher TOV% is better but for the other three factors it's better to limit your opponents offense and have lower factors.
| Team | eFG% Allowed | eFG% Allowed League Rank | TOV% | TOV% League Rank | DRB% | DRB% League Rank | FT/FGA Allowed | FT/FGA Allowed League Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 Milwaukee Bucks | 48.6% | 1 | 12.2 | 24 | 81.7% | 1 | .172 | 6 |
| 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers | 50.9% | 5 | 13.8 | 5 | 78.4% | 8 | .202 | 16 |
From the defensive four factors, it's easy to see how the Bucks have the one of the best defenses in the NBA. They're the only team in the NBA to allow an eFG% below 50%, and they're first in DRB%. They don't create turnovers at a high rate, but they aren't allowing their opponents to get fouled while driving to the basket either with a low FT/FGA. The combination of a low FT/FGA and eFG% is impressive because the Bucks are keeping the opponents FT low while limiting the eFG% as well. On the other hand, the Lakers are limiting their opponents to a good eFG%, forcing a good amount of turnovers, grabbing a solid percentage of defensive rebounds, but allowing their opponents to get fouled at an average rate.
PER
PER is the Player Efficiency Rating. It attempts to return a per-minute rating of the player's performance. The league average is set at 15 when calculated.
| Player | PER |
|---|---|
| Giannis | 31.6 |
| LeBron | 26 |
Giannis had a historic PER of 31.6, twice the league average. This would be the 7th highest regular season of all-time. LeBron's PER was high as well at 26, but Giannis wins this comparison. LeBron's PER would be the 7th highest among players this season.
BPM
BPM, which stands for Box Plus/Minus, is than estimate of the points above league average per 100 possessions played. Anything over 8.0 is considered an MVP-level season and above 10.0 is an all-time great season. This is a good measure of how much better a player was than the rest of the league. It will be heavily considered in my final MVP discussion. The OBPM and DBPM are also valuable in comparing these player, and more info about these stats can be found in the link above. OBPM and DBPM shouldn't be judged on the same scale as BPM, but are still good indicators of offense and defense in their own right.
| Player | BPM | OBPM | DBPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis | 11.5 | 7.4 | 4.1 |
| LeBron | 8.7 | 6.8 | 1.9 |
Honestly, I didn't expect Giannis's BPM to be that high. It's the 9th highest BPM in a season on record. This puts his season statistically as an all-time great season. I think it would be hard to make a case to give this MVP to LeBron. The OBPM and DBPM numbers also confirm what the other statistics are saying: Both players are great on offense and Giannis is contributing more on defense than LeBron.
VORP is a lot like BPM, but it takes the entire season in to account. I won't be using VORP in my calculations because it is calculated against an 82-game season, and at this point no team in the NBA has played more than 67 games.
Miscellaneous
Team Performance
| Team | Win % | League Rank | Conference Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 Milwaukee Bucks | 81.5% | 1 | 1 |
| 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers | 77.7% | 2 | 1 |
Slight edge to Milwaukee so far as they were leading the league over the Lakers at the time the season was suspended. The Bucks and Lakers faced one another twice in the regular season and had won one game each. The first game was a 6 point win by the Bucks, but the Lakers won by 10 next time they played. The Bucks and Lakers had the 1st and 2nd highest margin of victory, respectively. However, the Lakers had the 9th hardest strength of schedule and the Bucks had the easiest in the NBA. This gives the Lakers an edge in team performance.
Highlights
Giannis
LeBron
Both players highlights
Totals
| Comparison | Winner | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | Giannis | |
| 3's | LeBron | |
| 2's | Giannis | Slight win |
| Free Throws | Giannis | Slight win |
| Assists | LeBron | |
| Offensive Rebounds | Giannis | |
| Defensive Rebounds | Giannis | |
| Blocks | Giannis | |
| Offensive 4 factors | Lakers | 2 v 1 (1 tie) |
| Defensive 4 factors | Bucks | 4 v 0 |
| PER | Giannis | |
| BPM | Giannis | |
| Team performance | Lakers | |
| Highlights | Tie | No points awarded |
Your 2019-20 Kia NBA MVP goes to...
Giannis Antetokounmpo!
| Player | Total Categories Won |
|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 9 |
| LeBron James | 4 |
There's a chance that LeBron could have caught up to Giannis on a few categories, but it's hard to ignore Giannis's historic PER and BPM this season as well as the Bucks defensive 4 factors. I think in other years with weaker MVP races an argument for LeBron could be made. But if the regular season is over, Giannis is #1 on my ballot.
Code for this project can be found here. All data used was from the nba_api python module or Basketball-Reference.com